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06/03/2010 - Elmont, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pick the horses out of a hat for Saturday's running of the $1 million Belmont Stakes. Any of the 12 horses has a good chance of winning the third jewel of racing's Triple Crown.
The two second-place horses from the first two legs of the series are the lukewarm favorites with the Dwyer Stakes winner the third choice. Ice Box is 3-1 in the program, First Dude is 7-2 and Fly Down is 9-2. None of the other nine entrants are less than 10-1 in the morning-line.
Ice Box and Fly Down are trained by two-time Belmont winner Nick Zito. Uptowncharlybrown, 10-1, is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin who had Jazil win the 2006 Belmont. Bob Baffert, who sends out Game On Dude, won the 2001 Belmont with favorite Point Given and Todd Pletcher, who trains Interactif, won the 2007 running with the filly Rags to Riches.
"Obviously (with favorites), there's more pressure, anxiety, on the other hand, if they run well, you have to be content," said Zito. "I always like to steal Billy Turner's line, 'It's pressure when you don't have Seattle Slew."
Post position should have no bearing on the outcome of the race. Belmont Park is the largest track in the country and all the jockeys are veteran riders. Alan Garcia, a young up and coming reinsman, won the race two years ago aboard Da' Tara.
Garcia and John Velazquez are the only two riders in the race to have won the Test of Champions. Velazquez won aboard Rags to Riches.
Ice Box won the Florida Derby, went off at better than 11-1 in the Run for the Roses and finished a fast closing second to Super Saver. His stablemate Fly Down was ninth in the Louisiana Derby and had a five week break before winning the Dwyer.
First Dude likes to be near the lead. He was fifth in the Florida Derby, third in the Blue Grass Stakes to Stately Victor and got second in the Preakness after being on the lead.
"He's a big, strong, long-striding colt, and this track should suit him," said trainer Dale Romans about First Dude.
Along with Uptowncharlybrown the other 10-1 horses in the race are Make Music for Me and Game On Dude. Uptowncharlybrown raced at Tampa Bay Downs this winter where he won the Pasco Stakes, was third in the Sam F. Davis and fifth in the Tampa Bay Derby. he was third in the Lexington behind recent winner Exhi.
"He's been doing great since we got him, and I am excited about our chances," said McLaughlin who succeeds the late Alan Seewald as Uptowncharlybrown's trainer. "I'm looking forward to running him."
Make Music for Me is trained by Alexis Barba, who can become the first female trainer to win the Belmont. The colt was fourth in the Kentucky Derby after being sixth in the Blue Grass.
Game On Dude is coming off a win in the Lone Star Derby in Texas. Earlier he was seventh in the Florida Derby and fifth in the Derby Trial.
"I am looking forward to seeing what he will do going a distance of ground," said Baffert. "That's the key to the Belmont -- having a horse who can go that far."
None of the horses in the race may ever run 1 1/2-miles again.
Veteran trainer Bill Mott is going after his first Belmont Stakes victory. He trains Drosselmeyer for WinStar Farm, the owner of Kentucky Derby champ Super Saver. Drosselmeyer was fourth in the Risen Star Stakes as the 2-1 favorite, came back to be third in the Louisiana Derby and was second in the Dwyer as the 7-10 favorite.
"I think he's in there with a chance," said Mott about his horse who is 12-1.
Also at 12-1 in the program is Interactif. As a two-year-old he did very well on the turf, winning two stakes and finishing third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. Earlier this year he was second in the San Felipe Stakes and fourth in the Blue Grass.
Blue Grass Stakes winner Stately Victor is 15-1 in the morning-line. Trained by Mike Maker, the chestnut colt was eighth in the Run for the Roses.
Dave in Dixie and Stay Put are both 20-1 in the program and Spangles Star brings up the rear at 30-1.
Close your eyes and pick a winner. I like Make Music for Me to be part of the exacta. Throw in any of the other horses and you got yourself a winning ticket.
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Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds.
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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