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07/21/2010 - Saratoga Springs, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird put in a one-mile workout Wednesday morning at Saratoga Race Course. The four-year-old gelding is being readied for a start in the Whitney Handicap next month.
Coming off a disappointing eighth in the Firecracker Handicap at Churchill Downs, Mine That Bird worked the mile in 1:40.14 on Saratoga's Oklahoma Training Track. Regular rider Calvin Borel was in the saddle.
"I loved his work," said Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas. "It was a nice move; for a horse to work a mile in 1:40 on the training track, on any track, is pretty good, and he came home with good energy.
"I worked him a mile because I think he needed a little more. He'll work one more time, and then it's time to dance the dance."
The Firecracker on July 4 was the gelding's initial race of 2010 and his first career start on turf. He had not started in a race since finishing ninth in the Breeders' Cup Classic last November.
Owned by Mark Allen and Dr, Leonard Blach, Mine That Bird has not won since his surprise victory in last year's Run for the Roses as a 50-1 longhsot. His best race since the win was two weeks later in the Preakness Stakes when he rallied to get within a length of Rachel Alexandra.
The expected favorite in the Whitney is leading four-year-old colt Quality Road. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Quality Road is perfect in three starts this year, coming out on top in the Hal's Hope Stakes, Donn Handicap and the Met Mile.
Also being pointed toward the 1 1/8-mile race on August 7 is Stephen Foster Handicap winner Blame.
<< Marlins designate Robertson, put Hayes on DL
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Florida Marlins designated Nate Robertson for
assignment Wednesday, a day after the starter struggled against the Colorado
Rockies.
He allowed eight runs (seven earned) in five innings and took the los
<< Arsenal hands new deal to teenager Coquelin
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - French teenager Francis Coquelin has signed
a new long-term contract with Arsenal, who have confirmed that the 19-year-old
will spend the 2010-11 campaign on loan with Lorient.
The midfielder made three f
<< Inter signs Ranocchia to new contract
Milan, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Inter Milan manager Rafa Benitez has completed
the signing of Genoa defender Andrea Ranocchia on a long-term deal.
The 22-year-old central defender teams up with the San Siro giants after
spending the pr
<< Liverpool adds Wilson from Rangers
Liverpool, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rangers teenager Danny Wilson has
completed his transfer to Liverpool after signing a three-year contract with
Roy Hodgson's side.
The 18-year-old, who won the SFA and Football Writers' Youn
Earthquakes hope to shake up West against L.A. >>
Carson, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - San Jose slumped into the World Cup break last
month on a three-game winless streak, but the Earthquakes have resembled their
early-season form since Major League Soccer resumed in late June.
In addition to tw
Sabres reach 2-year deal with RW Patrick Kaleta >>
BUFFALO, N.Y. (AP) -Right wing Patrick Kaleta gave up an opportunity to go to arbitration by agreeing to a two-year contract with the Buffalo Sabres.Terms were not immediately available, but Kaleta was expected to earn a raise over the $522,000 he m
Sixers sign C Battie >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia 76ers added some depth to
the front court by signing veteran center Tony Battie on Wednesday.
Terms of the contract were not disclosed.
"We see Tony Battie as a player who can come in
Mets extend partnership with Triple-A Buffalo through 2012 >>
Flushing, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Mets and the Triple-A Buffalo
Bisons announced a two-year extension of their player development partnership
through the 2012 season.
The Bisons began their affiliation with the Mets in 2009 a
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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