MLB - Stay away from high-priced favorites

Baseball Betting Lines

05/21/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Favorites of -180 or more are 61-35 through the first six weeks of the baseball season. That's a solid 64% clip, a higher mark than all but one major league club.

However, when a team is favored by such a high price, it leaves very little room for error. Only one squad has given its followers a positive return on investment - the defending World Series champion Yankees.

Joe Girardi's club is 10-1 when favored by 180 or more, with the only defeat coming at the hands of the Angels back on April 14. That .909 winning percentage computes to plus $805 for every $100 wagered. Not a bad way to increase one's bankroll in a short amount of time.

Still, wagering on heavy favorites not named the Yankees has been a colossal failure. It's an angle that might be the worst betting strategy in all of sports.

From opening night through May 20, those brave souls who wagered on every single favorite of -180 or higher (not named the New York Yankees) are down over $2,257. That figure is not a misprint and even if New York's totals are included, the deficit still remains in the red at minus $1,452 for every $100 wagered. Astronomical numbers for just six weeks of action.

Two teams that helped those figures grow have been Minnesota and the Chicago Cubs.

The Twins were favored by -180 or more five times this season with just one victory over Kansas City on April 17. Minnesota proceeded to lose to the Royals the following night at -182, and then four days later to Cleveland at -195. In addition, the Twins failed twice vs. Baltimore at -202 and -223. Their five- game total stands at minus $702.

The Cubs have been even worse, down $894 in six contests with a 1-5 overall record. Three of their five losses came against the Pirates at -212, -199 and -190, while the other two defeats came at the hands of Houston and Washington.

BREAKING DOWN THE NUMBERS

There have been 56 National League games so far with a favorite of -180 or higher and the totals aren't pretty. The overall won-loss record is solid at 34-22 but each gambler who wagered on every single betting choice is down $1,441. Heavy favorites in the American League have fared much better at minus only $11, primarily due to the Yankees' dominance over the rest of the league.

To show how hard it is to be on the positive side of the ledger, take a look at Philadelphia. The NL East-leading Phillies are winning 75% of their -180 or higher opportunities, but the folks who wagered on all 12 of those games are still losing money at minus $20.

Breaking the numbers down even further, National League favorites of -200 or more have lost the most money at minus-$1,040. The top three money burners include St. Louis at -321 vs. Houston, Philadelphia at -310 against the Pirates earlier this week and Los Angeles at -281 vs. Pittsburgh.

Senior Circuit teams have won 13 of 20 games as -180 to -199 favorites but once again the total money lost is in the red at minus $401.

In the American League, favorites of -200 or greater are up $303, while the betting choices between -180 and -199 are down $314.

What's most interesting about these totals is how different this season has started compared to last year. Right before the first Interleague contest was played on May 22, 2009, there were only 48 games where one team was favored by at least -180, exactly half the total of 2010.

At this point last season, the Yankees were huge winners as well bringing home $353 for every $100 wagered. The Bronx Bombers were involved in 13 of the 48 games. Take away New York from the equation and that leaves just 35 matchups with a betting favorite of -180 or more compared to 85 in 2010.

Why has this trend been so popular this year? That's a difficult question to answer considering how poorly heavy favorites have fared. Bettors probably feel more confident when they see an extremely high line and they take solace in the fact the team can't possibly lose. Unfortunately, this is not college football, where the top squads falter just once per 12 games; this is baseball, a sport where the best teams lose 40% of the time.

Remember these figures the next time you think about wagering on a high-priced favorite the rest of the season.