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07/26/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A few weeks ago, at the post position draw for the Delaware Handicap, the discussion around the table was about the hoped- for meeting between Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta.
Since neither champion was entered in the 1 1/4-mile Del 'Cap we offered opinions on a possible face-to-face encounter of the two ladies. I stated my doubt that the two would meet this year, or ever. At the time, they were being kept apart from one another.
I felt that Zenyatta, 2009 Breeders' Cup Classic winner, would remain in California and not venture outside the Golden State until the Breeders' Cup this year at Churchill Downs. The six-year-old mare is scheduled to make her next start in the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes at Del Mar on August 7.
Rachel Alexandra, defending Horse of the Year, is just coming off a three- length victory in the Lady's Secret Stakes on Saturday at Monmouth Park. This was another 1 1/8-mile start for the four-year-old filly, who has not gone beyond 1 3/16-miles since winning last year's Preakness.
My belief had been that Rachel would be kept out of races beyond nine- furlongs, making the Breeders' Cup Classic a non-start.
I have changed my mind.
It now appears that trainer Steve Asmussen and owners Jess Jackson and Hal McCormick have been preparing Rachel for a 1 1/4-mile effort. In her first four starts of 2010 she has not been allowed to set the early pace. Jockey Calvin Borel has held the champion filly back in order to get her accustomed to coming from off the pace.
"I love where her mind is at right now," noted Asmussen. "She's more mature and she's carrying a little more weight.
"We're trying to avoid any peaks and valleys. I don't think you've seen the best of her yet. We have a lot of mare to work with. She's carrying a lot of flesh, and she's very sound and comfortable. It's getting to the time of year where more pressure will be put on her very step of the way."
Rachel is now being pointed toward the 1 1/4-mile Personal Ensign Stakes for fillies and mares at Saratoga on Sunday, August 29.
"We'll assess her condition when she goes back to the track, discuss everything with Mr. Jackson and go from there," said Asmussen from Saratoga. "I think there's a chance she can run here."
So, the whole thing about Rachel not just going ahead and annihilating her opposition in the early races was planned. We already know that Zenyatta can go 10-furlongs with no problem. Asmussen has been getting his filly ready for the longer distance, not just for the Personal Ensign, but also for a meeting against Zenyatta in the Breeders' Cup Classic.
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Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
Kurt Warner to start, Matt Leinart to watch
Despite the debate that's swirling , Kurt Warner will remain the starting quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals, coach Dennis Green said today. The Arizona Cardinals are the +7 point underdog at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com for this Sunday's game.
Green's comment came in a statement released by the team following an ESPN report that Green decided that rookie Matt Leinart would replace Warner as starter for Sunday's game at Atlanta.
"Generally talking about the starting lineup is not something we do," Green told the AP. "However, given the speculation that was out there we want to make it clear. We're disappointed after last week, but we still expect to be a playoff football team and we fully expect Kurt Warner to be the quarterback that leads us. That has not changed."
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on football needs.
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