World Cup 2010 Preview: Lowered expectations for Nigeria

Soccer Betting Lines

05/21/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - No African nation has ever reached the semifinals of the World Cup, but if you were to rewind time about 15 years, Nigeria would be the odds on favorite to do it.

With players like Sunday Oliseh, Victor Ikpeba and Jay-Jay Okocha starring for the Super Eagles in the mid-1990s, Nigeria appeared to have a very bright future.

Nigeria advanced to the second round in its first two World Cups in 1994 and 1998 before being eliminated, but took a step back in 2002 as it failed to advance past the group stage.

Nigeria then missed out on the 2006 World Cup altogether after failing to qualify, leading most observers to place them behind fellow African sides like the Ivory Coast, Ghana and Cameroon.

And although the Super Eagles struggled in qualification, needing a Tunisia loss and a win of their own just to make it to South Africa, they still bring an experienced team that is capable of returning to the knockout round.

On paper, the strength of this team can be found up top, where the Nigerians have a nice blend of youth and experience.

Veteran Nwankwo Kanu has enjoyed a successful career in European club soccer as he has won the Champions League, UEFA Cup and both English and Dutch titles.

He has twice been named Africa's Footballer of the Year and, at 33, should provide guidance for some of the team's younger stars.

Obafemi Martins and Ayegbeni Yakubu combined to score four of Nigeria's nine goals in qualification, while Peter Odemwingie and Ikechukwu Uche are also attractive options off the bench.

The midfield will be led by Chelsea's Jon Obi Mikel, a physical player who will provide cover for a defense that includes Taye Taiwo and Joseph Yobo.

Yobo scored a pair of important goals in qualifying and has been one of Everton's most reliable defenders over the past five years and he will play a large role in determining Nigeria's fate.

The team was drawn into Group B along with Argentina, Greece and South Korea, which was not a bad draw considering where some of the other African nations ended up.

Outside of Argentina, the other three teams should be fairly evenly matched, which should make for some tight games.

Nigeria will be coached by former Sweden boss Lars Lagerback, who replaced Shaibu Amodu at the end of February following the African Cup of Nations.

Lagerback helped Sweden advance past the group stage in each of the past two World Cups, but how much of a chance he has had to make his mark on the team is questionable.

A deep run in the World Cup for Nigeria is no longer a topic of discussion, but a spot in the second round would be a step in the right direction.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.